Weather It Is (Winter Storm Update #1)

The latest GFS and GFS Ensemble forecasts show a range of -22 C (1 member) to -31 C (two members) with a clustering around -27 C (a bit warmer than yesterday's forecast).  It looks like a bit of the cold air we thought might come in tomorrow (Wednesday) evening, night will hold back until Friday, when temperatures have a high probability of being cold enough for snow again.

So, what does this mean for us: the storm will arrive with strong winds and heavy rain (late in the center) Tuesday evening. There is the possibility of rain and hail together tonight, with a thin coating of ice pellets (but nothing that should affect travel -- except for the strong winds).  Wednesday will see a sharp turn towards colder weather with snow Wednesday evening/night, lasting into morning.  There should be a period of heavy snow in most places.  The extra two degrees colder than the last storm should be enough to lead to snow accumulation in many areas of Central Israel (as well as the north). Jerusalem is also a possibility for snow. Because the height levels will be dropping for this storm below 5400 m, snow may fall at even low elevations.

There is a high probability for snow, and preparations should be made. 

Barry Lynn