Weather It Is (Ticking Down to Thursday)

Winter seems to be making a grab at -- well -- winter.  For a while it looked like the atmosphere was evolving towards a plain rain, but now a good number of ensemble members are indicating that Wednesday night and Thursday will be our first real snow of the year.

However, anybody in his right mind would not call for Snow on Thursday -- unless he's got a safe place to go when the usual leads to the usual -- as in a rainy day or perhaps some slush on the ground.

In fact, I am specifically not saying it will snow -- no I am not.  Rather I am saying that members of  the ensemble GFS forecast coupled with the GFS are showing temperatures well below -25 degrees Celcius at 500 mb.  What we need is for the ensemble itself to reach a consensus.  If, and I repeat "if" this happens then I might -- maybe -- just stick my neck out and say: "yes it will snow, and break out the snow boots and sleds."

But now,

Barry Lynn
P.S. You can see the GFS and GEFS ensemble forecast of 500 mb temperatures on our site (under Forecasts."