Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Weather It Is (Rain, Possible Snow Showers, and Extreme Cold)

Good Evening:

As the first wave of upper air instability passes over of this evening, showers will continue to develop over the warm seas and move periodically inland over the coastal plain and mountains.  Rain will also head south tonight towards Beer-Sheva and Mitpe Ramon.

Tonight, temperatures will fall rapidly passing their inflection point around midnight, and continuing to fall into tomorrow evening.  Temperatures near freezing by morning and strong winds imply wind chill values below freezing in many hilly locations. By evening, the winds will die down and Thursday morning will probably be the coldest morning of the year throughout the country.

In fact, temperatures at 850 mb will fall to -3 or below by late tomorrow afternoon, meaning that temperatures may rise little if none at all tomorrow.

As the cold air arrives tonight, light snow may develop in the lingering moisture behind the cold front in the central mountain area. However, our models don't show very much precipitation.  Nevertheless, standing water on the roads will probably freeze at the higher elevations.

The GEFS and GFS both show another upper air disturbance approaching tomorrow evening. However, dry winds from the north suggest that it will pass by without any significant precipitation. But, because of the cold at the surface and aloft, we can't rule out some instability rain (inland) snow (mountain areas) showers.

The next week will turn a bit milder, but nothing that says spring is on the way.

For reference, we're noting another possible winter storm arriving late next week.

Barry Lynn

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