Monday, January 23, 2017

Weather It Is (Uncertainty)

Good Afternoon:

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the outcome of our next storm.

What we do know is that the warm weather will break Tuesday night and temperatures will fall rapidly into Thursday.  Rain should also develop Thursday or Friday morning.

Friday morning into about Monday morning will be unusually cold and windy with periods of precipitation.

The uncertainty is in just how much precipitation will fall, although at least moderate amounts are expected.  Within the set of global ensemble forecasts there are wetter and colder forecast "solutions," which bring with them the possibility of snow.

Arguing against a large snowfall, however, is the positioning of the upper trough a bit too far to the east.  We can see quite clearly that the upper level trough will approach Thursday night and then pass through on Friday.  There are some indications that it may restrengthen Friday into Sunday, but for now the most likely scenario is that it won't.

Still, cold air in the lower (850 mb) and middle (700 mb) atmosphere may bring enough cold to allow for a period of wet snow and/or snow showers in the central mountain areas and northern peaks of the Galilee.

That's where we stand now -- for those who love snow, they should hope for a restrengthening of the upper trough beyond Friday morning.

Barry Lynn

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