Friday, January 27, 2017

Weather It Is (Stormy Weather, Severe Winds, and Possible Snow)

Good Morning:

The wind will gust gale force or higher as the day nears its end.  The day will also be marked by periods of rain.

Below zero temperatures at 850 mb will arrive this evening, and precipitation should intensify as it does.  Our latest one kilometer high resolution run shows some light snow accumulation in Gush Etzion and the mountains north of Jerusalem, with moderate snow amounts in the area of Safed, and heavy snow on the Golan.

Yesterday, we ran our forecast using the coldest member of the ensemble, which produced a very light coating of snow in the Jerusalem area (including temperatures near freezing).  Today, we used the GFS forecast, which is about a 1/2 degree warmer than the GEFS mean.  So, there is still room for a light accumulation of snow in Jerusalem.

The cold weather will last into Sunday, which will be followed by a quick warm-up.

The latest GEFS shows a majority of 850 mb temperatures falling quite a bit below zero from the first of February to the 5th of February (or from about Wednesday to Sunday of next week and after).  Several members also show upper air temperatures falling to critical "snow-levels" as well.

We've heard the words "snow possible" so many times this year that we should be forgiven for showing a bit of skepticism.  Well, there are judges in Jerusalem, and they may just rule that this time it will snow (the possible becomes probable, and then actual).

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

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