Weather It Is (1:43 AM: Dynamic Cooling)

There was a bit of snow on the windows in Efrat, but not it is just rain (and warmer, too).
Good late night.

I woke up with a start.  Actually, I went to bed with the latest forecast showing snow in Metula, Safed (less) the Golan (more), the mountains north of Jerusalem, and possibly in the best elevations of Gush Etzion.

So, what is going on? The cold of the last few days has been a little slow to leave, but also the storm is very intense and undergoing what is called "dynamic cooling." (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd98-10.htm). This is what happens from a sharp decrease in pressure.

We see the impacts of dynamic cooling in the 700 and 500 mb temperature traces, as well as the 500 mb height fields.

What does this mean for those of us on the "border" of rain/snow in the center.  We really are right on the border in Gush Etzion/Jerusalem.  A half degree downwards could make a difference (and surface temperatures here are just 1 C). So, hard to tell what it will be, but I wouldn't mind a surprise in the morning -- even if this surprise is not  the likely scenario.  Still, the storm will peak in the next few hours so it will be interesting, and our snow model shows a light snow accumulation.

Snow on Wednesday is still possible and may have gotten a bit more likely in the high elevations of Gush Etzion, the Galil, and Golan.

Barry Lynn