Weather It Is (Winter Storm: Sunday Evening Update)

Good Evening:

The details of our upcoming winter storm are slowly coming into focus, but only some of them.

For instance, we see that it will be generally cold enough for snow from the center to the north by around mid-night Tuesday night.  Our 4 km forecasts show that precipitation should overspread the area on Tuesday, but that precipitation with the coldest air will (or at least might) remain north of Jerusalem until about morning time.  Or, at least we can say that the heaviest precipitation is expected from Wednesday morning through Wedneday night from the north to the center (Jerusalem, Gush Etzion, and centre-south).

A heavy snow event is expected throughout the center, northern mountains, and Golan, with the snow starting Tuesday afternoon and night from the Golan into the Galilee.  Gale force winds will accompany the storm with higher gusts. Snow may fall on the southern mountains.

The cold air will remain entrenched into Friday morning, and steady snow should end around Thursday morning.

The forecast for Friday and Shabbat remains a bit unclear.  Another trough may try to build southward again and combine with another low moving in from the West on Friday.  Temperatures may cool at 500 mb potentially bringing another round of snow -- but the chance of snow is about 20%.  Rain is more likely on Friday and Shabbat.

The weather pattern looks like winter next week, with a higher chance of rain and possibly snow again next week.

Barry Lynn