Weather It Is (Winter Storm Afternoon Update)

Good Afternoon:

There are two storms that should impact the State of Israel late this week and next.

The first will arrive in the north on Friday, but most of the rain with this system should fall Shabbat morning, afternoon and evening. Total amounts will be generally between 25 to 50 mm in the central and northern coastal regions, with greater than 50 mm in the far north.  Amounts in the center should be around 25 mm.  There will be occasional wind gusts greater than advisory levels and lighting/hail in the stronger storms.  Snow amounts of 10-25 cm are expected on the Hermon.

Our next storm is expected to arrive Tuesday evening and last into Wednesday.  Right now, there is about a 60% chance of significant snow in the higher elevations of the Golan, Galilee, and central mountains, including Jerusalem.  There is a 30% chance of sustained gale-force winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with lightning likely in convective storms, including snow bands.

We're still six to seven days away from this event, and there is still a lot of uncertainty in the development of the 500 mb trough, which depends on the phasing of the northern and southern Jet Streams.  The higher amounts of rain and snow refer to forecast scenarios in which there is greater phasing of these Jet streams (e.g., 25 cm). In the worse scenarios, significant snow will fall well into Wednesday and temperatures should remain at or below freezing in the higher elevations into Thursday.

On late Monday, we expect to be able to see with our 4 km forecast more clearly how much snow will fall with this event.  On Tuesday morning, we will be able to provide even more exact amounts by combining our 1.3 km forecast with the 4 km ensemble output.

Barry Lynn