Good Morning:
You might have one time read the Pooh stories. You might remember a rather snowy day where Pooh and Piglet sang a song to stay warm.
The more it snows (Tiddely-Pom)
The more it goes (Tiddely-Pom)
The more it goes on snowing (Tiddely-Pom)
And nobody know (Tiddely-Pom)
How cold my toes (Tiddely-Pom)
How cold my toes are growing (Tiddely-Pom Tiddely-Pom Tiddely-Pom Tiddely-Pom)
Certainly after a late night cup of hot chocolate one might find ones thoughts turning to those of snow, and so it was that I found myself in the middle of dream. In this dream, the forecast was for snow in the north and so I was downstairs looking at weather maps and wishing that for once our forecasts might be wrong.
As morning broke, my oldest daughter came downstairs and asked me what I was doing. After I gave a brief weather briefing, she exclaimed "but look outside!" Indeed, there was snow outside and the more often I looked the more snow there was. Beautiful, heavy -- but not to wet - snow. Snow that covered everything, everywhere, from the cars in the lots to field in the valleys and up the hills on the other side. If only I could have slept a bit longer.
I hid this dream from my wife, of course, who doesn't like snow.
Looking at the weather maps, we see a relatively shallow wavy pattern. There is relatively mild air over the eastern Atlantic, extending as far north to England, somewhat cooler winter air over central Europe and the Mediterranean, and unusually warm air over our neck of the woods -- the eastern Mediterranean states (one might even take a selfie of Lebanon and Israel together to get the picture -- if you know what I mean).
However, change is in the air. The shallow-wavy pattern should slowly widen and elongate as an area of strong low pressure in the northern Jet stream moves in off the Atlantic ocean and enters the southern Jet Stream shallow trough over central Europe. Our very mild air will be pushed back to the east and colder air will filter in from the west. The cold air will enter will definitely make itself felt by mid week, but he change towards more wintery (rainy) weather will be gradual and it may take another week before the pattern deepens and moves far enough east to push more than somewhat cold winter air our way -- that is rain.
Right now, we see temperatures falling to daytime highs of 5 to 10 C in the mountains and a slow increase in moisture during the next week. The temperatures will be cold and it may be damp.
While one might as a result feel a "tickle" -- or a feeling that this must end in snow (as temperatures at 850 mb cool even more) -- the knowledgable will know that this tickle is not nearly as strong as the one Pooh feels when 11 AM rolls around and he heads back home for a snack of honey. It will get cold but not that cold -- at least not by the end of next week.
Ironically, the change in our weather pattern will occur -- as noted -- with a merging of the northern and southern Jet streams. However, it appears that the real cold air will only be peripherally available even to the northern Jet stream. In fact, our sometimes source of wintertime snow cold (western Russia/Siberia) is unusually warm. The temperature-weather pattern in a way resembles a global warming world.
Since this is a slowly evolving system, there is time for change, and we do see some snow potential the week after next. However, the rain may also come to a premature end as temperatures slowly warm. In fact, this is more likely -- regardless of how our story began.
In the meantime, let's enjoy the end of our winter-break.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
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