Weather It Is (An Early Morning Update)

Good Morning:

The forecast for Shabbat remains the same: rain amounts generally 25 to 50 mm, with most of the rain falling on Shabbat into Sunday.  Occasional gusty winds and lightning in stronger storms.

The latest forecast has pushed the timing of our next  possible winter snow storm into Wednesday, with only a small chance of snow beginning Tuesday night.  However, if the storm develops earlier than this, than it is more likely to be rain (see below).

The likelihood of snow still remains about 60%, as much about the development of the next storm remains unclear. As mentioned, the key to a heavy snowfall is a strong interaction of the northern jet stream with the developing storm in the southern Jet stream. A strong development will lead to lots of cold (Siberian) air moving southward into our area, leading to intense surface low development just off our coast in the far eastern Mediterranean.

Lesser development means that there will only be rain with this next storm (which would fall mostly on Tuesday and Tuesday night).  Some phasing of the streams would mean heavy rain Tuesday night changing to mixed rain and snow on Wednesday.  A complete phasing means that there will be heavier amounts of snow of around 20 cm, which would occur most likely on Wednesday into Thursday.  The last scenario is the most likely.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn