Weather It Is (Afternoon Update)

Good Afternoon:

Heavy snow occurred in the northern mountains during the night as forecast. This morning's heavy rain and extremely strong winds developed as forecast along the coast.  This morning's light snow occurred in the central mountains as forecast.  There was even a period of heavy snow in Jerusalem.

These early afternoon hours snowfall have not yet materialised.

Yet, the latest 4 km ensemble forecasts continue to show precipitation moving into our area and continuing through the night.  The 1.3 km forecast continues to show snow accumulation into Thursday morning. The overall synoptic pattern remains the same, with temperatures forecast to cool aloft during the next several hours.

With all that, it is apparent, however, that the forecast timing of the heavy precipitation into the central mountains has not been accurate. The total amounts forecast remains the same as before.

The question is: is this a matter of timing, or simply a change in wind directions that have pushed the heavier precipitation a bit further north?

Considering the consistency of the forecasts, we must conclude that the forecast timing of the system is off and that snow and very cold temperatures should still be expected.

Moreover, Friday's event is still highly probable and temperatures are suppose to be even colder than this storm (possibly a couple of degrees below freezing at the surface in many mountainous areas), where any water on the roads will freeze and snow will be hard to remove from the roads. However, it is not yet possible to forecast amounts of snow, although they should be lighter than forecast today.

The forecast storm for Saturday night remains unclear.  It will be cold enough for snow at higher levels (500 mb), but it may be too warm near the surface (850 mb).  A substantial amount of precipitation is expected with this storm.

There is a 30% chance of another storm mid next week.

Barry Lynn