Weather It Is (Winter (Heavy Snow) Storm Update

Good Afternoon:

The day of the big storm approaches, or more accurately: the days of the big storm(s).

We have arrived within the window of the three day 4 km forecast and it is fearsome.

The chance of snow in the Golan Tuesday afternoon, night and Wednesday is 100%. The chance of snow in Sefad and the Galilee peaks is 100% Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The chance of snow in Jerusalem (from Wednesday morning) is 100% into late Wednesday night, Thursday morning.

Precipitation totals will range from 25 to 50 mm along the coast, to 50 to 100 mm in the central mountains and Galilee, and greater than 100 mm in the Golan.

This corresponds to 25 - 50 cm of snow in Jerusalem by Thursday morning, 35-70 cm of snow in the hills around Jerusalem and Gush Etzion (and the Galilee), and 50 to 100 cm of snow in the Golan, with more on the Har Hermon itself.

The storm is expected to arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening in the north and north central areas, where up to 25 to 50 cm of snow will fall by morning on the higher peaks (with more in the Golan). The precipitation should approach the Jerusalem area by about morning, but then retreat briefly to the its north.

Soon after, heavy snow should redevelop and move in the Central (Jerusalem) and South-Central Areas (peaks) during the morning and continue throughout the day and night.  The heaviest snow should be over by sometime late Thursday morning or night, but periods of snow will continue throughout the day.

It is important to keep in mind that snow rates could be quite high, especially during the initial influx of frigid air Wednesday morning in the center of the country.

The extreme cold should linger into Shabbbat and there is a 35% chance of an additional (snow) storm on Friday afternoon and evening in the mountains of the north and central areas.

Gale force winds (with higher gusts) should develop Tuesday afternoon in the north and center. Strong winds and dust will cover the south to Eilat.

Expect flooding in the Jordan (Tuesday night) and Dead Sea Valleys (Wednesday), and Arava mid-Wednesday onwards.

Barry Lynn