Weather It Is (Winter Storm Warning)

Good Evening:

The probability of (heavy) snow Tuesday night and Wednesday is now about 90%.

Today's rain arrived on schedule, and now most of the Global Ensemble Forecast System forecasts indicate a major winter (snow) storm on Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A ridge of higher pressure will shoot up into northern Europe and open the atmospheric gates for extremely cold air to plunge southward into the eastern Mediterranean Monday night and Tuesday. The cold air and energy from the northern jet stream will interact with a strong winter storm in the southern jet stream moving across the Mediterranean Monday into Tuesday.  This will cause a surface low to deepen rapidly on Monday and move into our area at about 995 mb (an intense winter storm for our part of the world) on Tuesday afternoon.

The snow amounts can only be predicted generally because we are still not within the forecast window of our high resolution models. Moreover, there is still some room for changes in the intensity of the storm as the two Jet streams complete their phasing. However, the general amounts indicate 10 cm or more (somewhat lower elevations), 20 cm in the Jerusalem hills and Safed, with possibly 30 cm in some higher locations (of Gush Etzion).  Snow should fall in the Golan, Galilee peaks, and Central Mountains and possibly in the mountains of the south.

Winds will increase on Tuesday afternoon and reach sustained speeds of 50 to 60 km/h with higher gusts.

Heavy rain should fall in the coastal regions (north to south) with the possibility of flooding in these areas and in the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys.

The chance of heavy snow in the central mountains is 25% Tuesday evening, 90% Tuesday night, 90% Wednesday, and 60% Wednesday evening.  More moderate snow may continue into Thursday morning, and cold weather should remain at least into Friday. Again, exact details must wait until we can see them in our high resolution forecasts.  Snow is possible in Safed late Tuesday afternoon and more likely in the Evening.

Barry Lynn