Weather It Is (Cold Enough For Snow?)

Good Afternoon:

An extended period of heavy rain, wind, and possibly snow is on the way.  It will be cold enough at upper levels for very strong convective storms, which gives ample time for snow and ice to freeze during their ascent and descent within storms. In fact, the latest forecast shows that it will be colder than -27 C at 500 mb.

Yet, the middle and lower atmosphere remains unusually warm in comparison, so it is more likely that any graupel (frozen rain) or wet-snow flakes will melt as they approach the hills of Jerusalem, and Gush Etzion.  On the other hand, it is suppose to precipitate quite heavily and as anyone knows: there is strength in numbers (meaning that enough cold flakes descending at once might just cool the atmospheric column to freeze the ground and drop surface temperatures from 1-2 C to just below freezing).  I do not, believe, though that this is something predictable.

In summary: rain arriving this evening and becoming heavy late at night. In the higher elevations, the rain can be mixed with snow, and could even accumulate in a "flash."  The cold air continues to build in during the day on Thursday, again with heavy precipitation likely.  Will we wake up to snow tomorrow? There is some excitement in not knowing!

After the storm passes Friday (or even Shabbat), the temperatures will warm next week back to pleasant levels, before beginning a precipitous dive to more winter like levels as another (cold) storm approaches at the end of the week.

Barry Lynn