Weather It Is (Wet and Snowy?)

Good Morning:

The weather is beautiful.  The relatively warm and sunny weather is courtesy of high pressure, weak winds, and plenty of sunshine.

Yet, the Land of Israel is a land of contrasts, and our weather will be no exception.

As high pressure moves off to the east late in the week, temperatures will warm even more, but then turn sharply colder as a trough of low pressure and colder air moves in from the west.

With the cold air should come plenty of moisture and ample rain.  In fact, our week of sunshine should be followed by a week of rain.  Unfortunately, beyond this one (i.e, a forecaster) should be hesitant to venture.

For instance, there are ensemble members that predict a huge snow storm for next week, but there are also ensemble members that predict just plain rain (for the higher elevations in the cental mountains and North -- of course, there will be heavy, heavy snow on the Hermon).  Right now, the forecast is leaning towards a cold (enough) system -- cold enough to produce snow at upper levels.  The problem is that unless one of the very, very cold forecasts verifies (comes to be), the warm Mediterranean sea may just produce enough warming of lower layers to melt any snow on the way down.  This is not a pleasant situation -- for those hoping for snow, and for the snow flakes that start their lives on such an optimistic note.

Should we be optimistic about next week?  Yes, but should we be realistic, yes.

Barry Lynn
Efrat