Weather It Is (Ensembles Of Rain)

Good Afternoon:

I hope all are well -- before the weather takes a turn for the "worse," and a storm -- of a week's duration -- moves into affect our area.  This storm, which is actually a series of reinforcing "shots" of cold air, is suppose to affect our area from Shabbat throughout the week and possibly into next.  Why..., these days remind me of the old days when it used to rain and rain -- or at least this is what my wife tells me.

With each reinforcing push of cold air, there will come the possibility of snow, especially from January 8th through January 11th.  The problem is -- there also comes the possibility of just plain rain in the higher elevations in the center and north.

Speaking of probabilities, the ensemble shows that about 50% of the forecasts are predicting a period of snow sometime during this period.  What is an ensemble (someone asked)?  It is a probability forecast made up of many forecasts that begin at the same time, but with slightly different initial conditions.  Since we never know the state of the world's weather exactly (just like we don't always know whether to turn right or left, or to buy or not to buy), we create a world consisting of multiple weather worlds, each a bit different, and each that evolve over time to different forecasts.  However, when all of the members of the ensemble indicate a particular type of weather, this is usually a good sign -- for the forecast or forecaster -- and we know it will be wet.  Will it snow? Stay tuned.

Barry Lynn