Weather It Is (Up or Down, Rain or Snow)

The weather maps are starting to get interesting.  However there is still a lack of phasing between the northern and southern Jet Streams.  Moreover, there is still a huge variability in the forecast development among ensemble members.  You can get a glimpse of this by looking at the GEFS forecast data on our site.

Here's what we see is indicated. Monday night and Tuesday should be generally rainy.  There should be scattered showers on Wednesday, with a steadier rain on Wednesday Night into Thursday.  Some of the ensemble members are cold enough to produce snow on Wednesday Night, Thursday, but there is still quite a lot of scatter in the forecasts for this period. In fact, the lack of phasing means that the middle atmosphere (700 mb) does not support a "real" snowfall in areas like Jerusalem. On the other hand, very cold upper air temperatures can lead to rapid cooling and a quick accumulation.

Looking far ahead -- at the GFS forecast -- suggests the possibility of phasing of the jet streams and our next big snow-storm.  However, if you look at the attached graph, you can see that this is just one of the possibilities for this period.