Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Weather It Is (Potential For Heavy Rain (Snow))

Good Evening:

The latest long term weather forecast from the National Weather Service (Uptown, NY) reads (for Thursday through Tuesday): "Models are in good agreement with the overall H5 Patte RN across North America through the period... with timing and amplitude differences starting to become apparent this weekend..."

In other words, they are admitting that they really don't know what's going to happen just a few days from now, although they are willing to guess -- despite all the advanced technology at their disposal.

If you take a look at our 850 mb temperature forecast for the next few days you'll see a rollercoaster ride as a cold front begins its passage tonight with a chance of light rain showers on Thursday afternoon/night.

We'll then ascend to relatively milder temperatures on Shabbat and Sunday, and then crash down on Monday to close to freezing.

The following few days could be very rainy.  We're also getting indications from the 500 mb temperature graph  (now about 30%) that there could be heavy snow. The problem is that the previous global ensemble forecast did not show what the latest (0600 GMT) now shows, and given the uncertainty in the weather upstream (over the eastern US), it is hard to know whether the next forecast ensemble will be reassuring or not.

So, that's where we leave it -- with a
touch of optimism tinged by the reality that we're in a very unusual weather pattern that can't decide just how unusual it wants to be.

Barry Lynn

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