Weather It Is (Extreme Cold, A Recap, and A Forward Look)

Good Morning:

As shown below, it's minus two degrees celcius here in Efrat. This means any standing water has frozen on roads making for extremely hazardous driving (and walking) conditions.  The IMS map below shows that most of the country is about as cold as it gets, although there are those who will remember colder! Don't expect the temperatures to warm up quickly, as the cold is being sustained by a cold influx of air from the north.

Areas in Jerusalem should move above freezing a bit after 8 A.M.  In Gush Etzion not until around 9 A.M.

There is news in the weather world.  People are speaking about the Polar Vortex breaking down. What this means is that the mass of very cold air over the north poles is displaced elsewhere.  While some are talking about a good chunk of this air freezing the eastern US, others are speaking about part of it breaking off and freezing Europe.

The unexpected movement of this mass of cold air has possibly altered our forecast.  There is a 25% chance of rain in early February, which is still supposed to be followed by a mild spell for several days. However, the second week may be stormy, and there are some indications of a return to colder weather.

When forecasters see the onset of unusually cold weather at lower levels of the atmosphere, as well as in the middle and upper atmosphere, they think big snow-storm.  Given the initial forecasts for precipitation amounts, it seemed like a good possibility.  But then it was brought to my attention my concerned weather-buffs, that there was going to be a potential problem with the "phasing" between the northern and southern Jet streams.  Others noted the sudden lack of precipitation amounts in the forecast during the mid-week period. In the end, the second half of our storm was basically a lot of huff and puff, but without the moisture energy to sustain prolonged snowfall.  (Rain did fall heavily in bands of moisture streamers, though, especially in the south.)

True, it did snow on four days in a row, but the kind of heavy/icy snow shown in the video came only in a snow-squall on the last day (Wednesday afternoon, see below), leaving a quick 2 centimeters of ice.  It was followed by an hour of light to moderate snow, but heavy snow is needed to make for an accumulation.

True, places in the higher elevations (like Gush Etzion) saw anywhere from 5 to 10 centimeters, but I had the feeling that snow was something I could sense, and even glimpse, but never really put my hands on.  It was there, and then it was gone.

Overall, forecasters did quite well predicting the evolution of the storm, especially once it became apparent Motzei Shabbat/Sunday that something was amiss.  The exception, ironically, was right here in my backyard, where snow amounts were over-forecast at the beginning of the storm (Sunday night and Monday). Still it did snow, but like I wrote earlier: location and elevation meant whether one woke up to a winter scene or not.

We've got a month to go -- let's make the best of it.

Oh: everytime I start to think that maybe we've made some progress fighting Palestinian terrorism, they come and murder again.  I find myself thinking: don't these people have any shame?

Barry Lynn