Weather It Is (A Lot Of Talk)

Good Afternoon:

People say it smells like snow.  People say that all the models show it will snow.  People are saying a lot.

While it is true that the global ensemble forecast (GEFS) shows that temperatures will be below 0 for four days next week, and that temperatures at 700 mb will be below -11 C (with possibly as low as - 14 C), the 500 mb forecast temperatures show only a 15% chance of heavy snow. On the other hand, this looks like to be a very wet system, much wetter than the present storm.

Speaking of the present storm, we're looking for rain to move southward this afternoon into the Jerusalem area and spread south to Beer-Sheva.  Total rainfall amounts will be between 25 to 50 mm in the north (north of Lake Kinneret), 10 - 25 mm southward to Jerusalem, and 5 to 10 mm south (again) to Beer-Sheva.  Snow of 10 to 25 cm on the Hermon.

If one is wondering where did the previously heavier forecast rains go, one might answer that they were passed into next week's storm.

As mentioned, everyone is talking but those who say "yes" it will snow and snow a lot are not really paying attention to probabilities, nor to the fact that snow amounts are very sensitive to elevation in the central areas.

Certainly, there is much to be excited about: next week will be very wet, cold, and a severe gale is a good possibility (with "Storm" force gusts).  Otherwise, let's wait a bit on predicting accumulating snow.

Barry Lynn