Weather It Is (It's In The Cards Or Not!)

Good Evening:

The weather will warm up to mild levels before a dry cold front air arrives Thursday and Friday.  The temperatures will then warm right back up (and then some) until Sunday afternoon -- before winter makes its return.

One might argue that it's in the cards, or a bit of luck -- however our weather turns out. Right now, we see the potential for a very wet storm next week -- covering a good part of the country.  We see a 40% chance that temperatures will approach freezing, and about a 30% chance that temperatures will be cold enough for snow in the middle atmosphere.  However, we're not seeing real cold temperatures at 500 mb, just yet -- or rather there is a 10% chance that temperatures will be cold enough to cause convective (heavy) snow.

Predicting the  weather is not like predicting the orbits of the planets.  Their orbits can be described by a set of equations with solutions that can be calculated.  The weather, on the other hand, is described by a set of non-linear equations that have no exact solution.  Moreover, we never know the exact initial conditions of the atmosphere (it's state now), so we must approximate that too.  This is the reason that we use ensemble forecasts (multiple forecasts) so we can see just how strong the "signal" we're trying to predict is -- when most of the ensemble members cluster around a particular forecast event we have greater confidence in their outcome.

Right now, we have very low confidence.

For those who resist the idea that all is random chance, or that life is more than a deck of cards...

It might interest some to know that one of our prayers speaks about both the orbits of the planets and  predicting the weather (thank you to an interested person for this tidbit), and contrasts them.

For instance, Psalm 148: "Praise, sun and moon; praise him, all bright stars.  Praise him. the most Exalted of the heavens. and the waters that are above the heavens.  Let them praise the name of Hashem, for he commanded and they were created. And he established them forever and ever, he issued a decree that will not change.

Contrast this with: Praise Hashem from the earth....  Fire and hail, snow and vapour, stormy wind, fulfilling his word.

Enough said.

Barry Lynn