Weather It Is (People Are Skeptical)

He's absolutely correct:

"There are two arguments against the cold trough dipping significantly into the Eastern Mediterranean: First is that all 3 major Ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) all have the mean trough on the 18th centered from the vicinity of St. Petersburg in Russia, through Belarus and Western Ukraine and into The Balkans/Greece." (The second remains unsaid, for now.)

Normally, we'd would consider this a typical winter rain storm as the storm moves over the warm waters of the Mediterranean.  This means that it starts off cold, but then warms a bit as it moves in our direction.)

However, as it approaches our area, a high pressure system should develop to the storm's north -- much as high pressure areas feed cold air into warm-water ocean moving storms along the east coast of the United States.  This will develop in response to ridging (warming) at lower levels of the atmosphere over southeastern Europe.

The maps still show plenty of cold air to feed down into the storm.  Secondary development might then bring us snow mid-next week.

As for probabilities, they still remain about 30% in favor. However, the timing is more sure than before.

Somewhat mild until Thursday evening, when a weak storm will bring chilly temperatures and a chance of showers continuing into Friday.  By that time, we hope to be able to see just what's up with next week's possible storm.

Barry Lynn