Friday, February 6, 2015

Weather It Is (The Blur Of History)

Good Morning:

When history is written, it is often written from the side of the victors.  In our case, the victor will be the atmospheric wave pattern that eventually resolves itself over the eastern Mediterranean.

History is also a blur -- in our case: the future is not at all certain -- so what might we expect of history?

Looking at the global forecast ensemble, we can see things pretty clearly until Tuesday morning.

We know that today will be a warm day, but that the temperatures will begin a downward plunge sometime tonight and arrive (temporarily) at cold plateau Tuesday morning.

It will become quite windy on Monday and by Tuesday afternoon gale force or strong gale force winds will prevail generally over the country.  Heavy rain (with lightning) will also arrive and snow will fall on the Hermon.

Beyond Tuesday morning, we can only see an even colder pattern with the potential for heavy rain and possibly (but with no certainty) snow in the higher elevations.

There is also the possibility of a redevelopment of the storm system early next week.

We spoke about a "historical" storm.  This storm may indeed be historical, or at least notable.

Please don't find it strange that your forecaster is suggesting that we must wait and see (at least a few days more).  To speak more definitely before the "facts" are more definitive would be a mistake.

Barry Lynn

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