Saturday, February 7, 2015

Weather It Is (It is Hard to be a Bug!)

Good Evening:

We've had weeks of pleasant, and at times unseasonably warm weather.  It has all come to an end, and end it will.

How is "Mother Nature" suppose to respond?  True, the trees keep track of the temperature and the  amount of sunlight, but what about a bug -- a bug who hatches in the warmth of spring, dons his new shiny exoskeleton (or his spring time coat: and proceeds to seek out a mate -- only to find it's still winter time!  What about those birds who took advantage of some unusually strong southerly winds, arrived here on a pleasant spring day -- plumped and preened their springtime coats, sing a song of spring -- only to find it's still winter!  And, lastly, what about us?  I saw someone in short sleeves and shorts!  I wanted to shout: go home, get dressed!  Winter is coming.

And come it will.

In fact, it's back -- although not all is perfect for snow lovers.

The basic problem for those who want a big snow is that the storm is arriving a bit from the west. For the coldest air to arrive here, the storm should be east of Cyprus, and not west of it as the cold air sweeps southward.  On the other hand, the storm will move to the east and there is plenty of cold air available to this storm.

So, here is what we expect.

1) Periodic showers with gusty winds into Tuesday.  The heaviest rain will fall in the north. Temperatures will plunge over the next day or so, level out late Monday, and then plunge to near freezing sometime Tuesday afternoon.

2) With the cold air will come extreme sustained winds of 50 km/h or more, with gusts of 70 to 80 km/h.  Strong storms and lightning as the cold air moves in.

3) Heavy snow will fall on the Hermon on Tuesday into Wednesday (and Thursday).

4) The best chance for snow in the center (Jerusalem) and higher elevations of the Galilee will most likely be on Wednesday and Thursday as the coldest air aloft (at 500 mb) arrives. In fact,  wet snow is likely, but it is not yet possible to speak about accumulations).

5) Heavy periods of precipitation will continue, possibly for the next 10 days, with snow again possible on Shabbat and during the following week.

With the wind, lightning, and heavy rain (and possible snow), this is an extremely dangerous storm!

Barry Lynn

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