Weather It Is (At War with the Weather: A Storm of Massive Impact)

Good Evening:

One struggles to find the right words to describe the potential impact of the storm that will affect us in the next few days.

It has been the case that in times of war those living in one part of the country may be somewhat oblivious to what is happening elsewhere.  If that missile wasn't in my backyard -- its out of sight out of mind. Of course, this isn't entirely true as we're all affected one way or another by what happens to our fellow citizens.  Of course, we all felt the last war with Hamas (the third since we were promised  -- mistakenly --  "peace in our time" if we only left Gaza).

In the next few days, the country will feel like it is at war -- with the weather.  From extremely heavy rain along the coastal regions with gale force or higher winds, to the heavy snow in the mountains of the Galilee and Golan, to the dust storms in the south -- it will simply be unbearable for many. The solution: to stay indoors and away from danger.

Even though the storm will start in the north tonight, the strongest impulse will arrive from noon time in the north to late afternoon in the center coastal areas.  When the 500 mb trough (with vorticity maximum) arrives it will trigger rainfall rates of 60 mm per hour in some locations.  In the higher elevations of the north snow should quickly accumulate and bring (with the wind) travel to a standstill -- immediately.  Snowfall rates will continue throughout the following 24 hours at rates of 4 to 8 cm per hour in the highest areas, with total accumulations depending on elevation (i.e., melting vs snowfall).  In the Golan, expect 50 to 100 cm of snow, and 1 to 2 meters on Mount Hermon.  In the Galilee mountains, up to 50 cm or higher, with 10-25 cm of wet snow in the area of Sefad.

The headwaters of the inland rivers will quickly fill with water and present the potential for massive river rises in a very short time -- adding to flood risk from local drainage overloads.  Do not try to drive through quickly moving streams of water or across flooded roads.

Last November, the area from Ashquelon to Jerusalem was treated to between 100 and 150 mm of rain.  This time, it looks like the city will be on the southern fringes of the precipitation shield of this  storm, along the confluence of northwesterly moist winds rotating around the storm and the dry desert winds from the southwest.  Hence, Beit-El may receive 10 to 25 cm of snow while Jerusalem gets none, and Gush Etzion gets 5 to 10 cm.  It all depends on where this confluence line sets up.

Regarding temperatures in the Jerusalem center of the country: the greatest potential for snow is Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, with the late afternoon/evening being the most probable.  Another round of precipitation should arrive Wednesday afternoon and possibly change to snow during Thursday night into Friday morning.

Just like real wars, the war of the storm will linger for quite a while -- as the atmospheric pattern will remain unusually cold in the eastern Mediterranean for the next two weeks.

We'll be monitoring the forecast and bring along any new information about snow amounts and possible changes to the storm track.  Tomorrow morning, we'll have snow forecasts from our highest resolution model, and we'll be better able to see just how much of the rain accumulates as snow.

Barry Lynn