Weather It Is (The Right Decision?)

Good Evening:

I was asked on the Josh Hasten radio show whether the Moatza made the right decision in closing schools today.

In retrospect, it was a mistake closing school. Even so, they made the right decision.

One must keep in mind that they followed their forecasters advice, advice that they most likely pay for.  In this respect, they had no choice but to close school.

I like to think (and I believe that others will bear witness to my statement) that we provide the most accurate weather forecasts in the country. We do this through both forecast model development and by using these models at very high resolution to more accurately forecast local weather variations.  We also run an ensemble forecast that provides us with probability that the weather will produce certain threshold amounts of precipitation and/or temperature.

Even so, we are not 100% accurate, nor is their weather forecaster 100% wrong (probably far from it). Hence, the correct approach is to weigh both forecasts and decide whether the risk and potential loss outweighs the cost of taking a particular action/or not.

Regarding tomorrow's forecast: Meteotech and others are predicting heavy snow throughout the day tomorrow (Friday). Our forecast shows that the temperatures should warm in the late morning (here), mid-morning in Jerusalem, keeping accumulations from approaching the 50 cm predicted by them. In fact, the 6 GMT forecast produces a bit less snow for us (and Jerusalem) -- simply by lowering the total precipitation amounts.  However, our 6 GMT forecast is generally less accurate than the other time slots.  We'll see "who" is correct tomorrow.  In either case, most will probably prepare for what is most likely, but also have plans for what might be.

Barry Lynn