Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Weather It Is (Lesser Proportions)

Good Evening:

The latest GFS weather forecast has the storm approaching us from the west.  This is a single forecast, referred to as a "deterministic" forecast.  It is the highest global forecast resolution available to us over the time frame of a week.

A storm that approaches from the west will pick up a lot of moisture from the sea, but will also have surface temperatures most likely too warm for snow -- except at the highest elevations.  In fact, the sea can warm the atmosphere through the middle levels (700 mb), limiting any potential for a big snowstorm.

Yet, the details of next week's storm remain unclear. There are still ensemble members that indicate a colder and more direct "solution" to the atmospheric wave pattern that will become our weather.

The most likely scenario is heavy rain mixed with grapple (ice pellets).  Until the atmospheric wave pattern becomes better resolved (with much less potential variability), it will be difficult to be certain either way.

Barry Lynn

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