Weather It Is (Winter Storm Watch)

Good Afternoon:

Quote of the day: "Boston has gotten more snow in three weeks than Chicago has ever gotten in an entire winter." (JC, Boston.)

In the last three weeks, Boston has had more than 100 inches of snow (or about 3 meters worth).  We've add 12 inches out here in Gush Etzion.

In our neck of the woods, the forecasts are trending towards a snow event beginning sometime Thursday, extending into late Friday, and possibly lasting into Shabbat.

Temperatures at 850 mb and 700 mb are indicating that we'll be 1 to 2 degrees colder than we were in the January snow/non-snow event, and much colder than we were in the storm of last week that brought mostly wet snow to many locations in the north.  The difference is that last week's storm came from the west over the sea, while this storm should arrive from a more northerly direction. The probability of a wet snow is 80%, and the probability of a dryer, more accumulating snow is 40%.

At the 500 mb level, where cold temperatures are an indication of the potential for heavier, convective snow,  there is a 30% chance that we'll have periods of heavy snow in thunderstorms.

In order to accumulate a lot of snow in the area of Jerusalem, we need the colder forecasts to verify. Otherwise, periods of snow might fall and melt quickly. We've probably already reached the point where we can be reasonably sure of at least a wet, accumulating snow in the area of Gush Etzion and Sefad. The question in these areas is whether it will be more like the snow of Wednesday night/Thursday (wet) or more like Friday evening's dry, fluffy (quickly accumulating) snow.

Otherwise, we'll wait until Wednesday to change the Winter Storm Watch into a Winter Storm Warning and provide more exact numbers about expected accumulation.

Elsewhere, snow will fall on the Hermon and Golan.  At the moment, 25 to 50 mm of rain are expected along the coastal areas and inland hills.

Barry Lynn