Weather It Is (I Hope He's Right?)

Good Morning:

In general, the forecast from yesterday remains unchanged -- except for some of the details about snow amounts.

A massive and intense storm will impact the country today into early next week.  The storm will bring with it very high winds, heavy rains, lightning, and snow in the higher elevations.  After the initial period of precipitation, the storm will receive additional cold air ("energy") and continue to produce precipitation into Shabbat.  General instability (cold air at upper levels) will remain into next week.

The latest forecasts indicate slightly warmer temperatures up in the north. Hence, snowfall amounts at elevations in the area of Sefad may reduced somewhat from previous estimates. A degree here or there will make a huge difference in amounts.  For instance, the Old City of Sefat is predicted to accumulate around 10 cm, but up in Beit Jann there will be between 25 to 50 cm by Wednesday afternoon.  This (in Beit Jann)  is about 40% of the precipitation converted to actual snow accumulation, compared to 75% in the storm of December 2013. This is not to imply that roads will not become snow covered, but there will be a lot of effort (on the storm's part) to accumulate snow, but relatively lower snow totals.

In the Jerusalem area, our highest resolution model still shows a sharp cut-off to the precipitation shield, lowering potential snow amounts in this area. Ironically, folks often worry about the forecast being correct, while here they might sort of wish that the forecast will be wrong -- or at least off a bit.

Yet, our 4 km ensemble indicates a slight shift southward of the precipitation, even as far south as Efrat (but not Hebron).  The probability of > 1 mm of precipitation is 100% in the Jerusalem/Gush Etzion area, while there is a 50% chance of > 10 mm in the center area of Gush Etzion.  This corresponds to 5 to 10 cm of snow in the Efrat, Alon Shavut, Kefar Etzion area, with a coating of snow possible in Jerusalem. The best chance for the snow in the Jerusalem area is the mid-afternoon to evening time.

The precipitation in the Jerusalem area should retreat to the north by around midnight.  Because of the relatively warm temperatures, the snow on the ground (if any) will have a hard time sticking around.  The storm will continue to rage in areas north of Jerusalem, while rain or possibly snow will return to the Jerusalem area Thursday night, and continue as rain or wet snow/rain during Shabbat.

Otherwise, a dust storm will continue to rage in the south -- south of the southern extent of the precipitation.

Barry Lynn