Weather It Is (Winter Storm Watch)

Good Afternoon:

While it hasn't always been wet, there have been at least a few opportunities for snow in the higher elevations of the country, and that has been snow or wet snow in the north.

We are again faced with another opportunity for snow in the higher elevations of the country, including Jerusalem.

Assuming that our ensemble models faithfully represent the potential variability in the weather, then when we say that there is a 30% chance of snow, then it should snow at least 30% of the times we say this.

The (weather) problem for those of us living in Israel is that our opportunities are often quite limited. For example, if we had just one opportunity a year, we would expect snow three times every 10 years.  This is a long time to wait!

Yet, this year has been different (as noted above) than those of the past as our opportunities seem to be more frequent and we're able to actually get a stronger indication for the accuracy of our models (especially factoring in the last few years).  The results are pretty favorable.

So, here it goes: we see a 60% chance of unseasonably cold weather (temperatures near zero) from late Wednesday into Shabbat.  This would likely produce a period of light snow, possibly coating the ground in Jerusalem with several centimetres of snow in the areas of Gush Etzion, Sefad, and the Golan.

We see a 25% chance for extreme cold and for a major snowstorm that will (possibly) end our winter on a very white(dry snow) note.

Otherwise, periods of rain should overspread the country with possibly strong winds during this period.

Barry Lynn